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Remarks by John C. Bogle
Founder, The Vanguard Group and
President, Bogle Financial Markets Research Center
Before the Financial Analysts of Philadelphia
February 15, 2001
Since last July, when I accepted
the kind invitation to address you, a lot has happened in the world
of investing! Then, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index stood
at 1500 and the NASDAQ at 4300; by the market’s late December lows,
before the recent upticks, these indexes had fallen to 1260 and
2330, respectively. With a decline of 22% in the total market from
the March high, stocks are now, by the traditional definition, in
a bear market.
While there are plenty of long faces around
Wall Street, I will argue today that the decline should hardly have
surprised us. For it signals a significant inflection point in stock
market history, a return to (or at least toward) reality that it
is all for the best in the long run. We are, I believe, now moving
into a New Environment for stocks that will profoundly affect the
profession of investment management throughout the coming decade,
and perhaps for a whole generation of investors.
When the NASDAQ bubble at long last burst, with
Internet stocks leading the way down and technology stocks not far
behind, we who make investing our profession received a healthy
reminder of our fallibility. What is more, the turn in the market
tide has reminded us of some long-forgotten truths that ought to
have been self-evident. One of these truths is that, in the field
of investment management, nearly all of those experts whom we identify
as stars, prove to be comets. Rather than being eternal beacons
of light, most managers live a transitory existence, illuminating
the financial firmament for but a brief moment in time, only to
flame out, their ashes drifting gently down to earth. Of course,
some outstanding managers remain, but history tells us that they
are the exception that proves the rule.
Morning-Stars
Let’s begin with the stars identified by
Morningstar. The recommendations of this fine provider of mutual
fund data, best known for the award of its "Star" ratings—Five
Stars to the top tenth of funds; One Star for the bottom tenth—are
tracked by The Hulbert Financial Digest. During the period 1993-2000,
the total return on Morningstar’s top-rated U.S. funds averaged
+106%, vs. +222% for the total stock market (the Wilshire 5000 Equity
Index). What is more, these funds carried a relative risk (measured
by standard deviation vs. the total market) of 1.26. Achieving but
48% of the market’s generous reward while assuming 26% more risk
is hardly a tribute to the staying power of the stars.1
|
Morningstar's Top-rated
Equity Funds
1993-2000
|
| |
5-Star Equity Funds |
Wilshire 5000 |
| Cumulative Return |
+106%
|
+222%
|
| Relative Return |
0.48
|
1.00
|
| Relative Risk (Volatility) |
1.26
|
1.00
|
| Source: Mark Hulbert |
While Morningstar candidly acknowledges
that the stars it awards have no predictive power, my strong impression
is that investors will improve their returns if they simply ignore
the One-Star funds. (Most are consigned to that dismal rating because
of the impact of their excessive costs.) And, measuring as they
do both risk and return, the star ratings are not dumb. But
they have two problems: 1) based as they are on the average return
of all U.S. equity funds, the ratings heavily reward the
investment style most recently in vogue; and 2) they are based
on past performance—especially recent past performance—which
is inevitably period-dependent. In investing, the past is a weak—and
often counterproductive—link in the chain that leads to the future.
For example, in 1996, just before
the great stock market boom had reached full fruition, technology
funds were earning just 2.1 stars (30% below the 3.0 average)
and at 2.8 stars, large growth funds were rated only slightly higher.
As 2000 began, however, the growth funds’ rating had leaped to 4.2
stars, and technology funds had almost reached perfection—4.7 stars,
on average! Small wonder that the soaring ratings of technology
funds and aggressive growth funds helped lure the gullible public
into the fray. But those once-shining stars are now proving to be
comets, their ratings fading with each passing day. Yet investors,
foolishly captivated by powerful past performance, rely heavily
on the Morning-Stars in selecting funds. During the past two years,
more than 100% of all money flowing into equity funds was directed
to 4-Star and 5-Star Funds.
|
Morningstar's Star Ratings
1996 versus 2000
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| |
Average Rating
|
|
| |
1996
|
2000
|
Change
|
| Technology Funds |
2.1 
|
4.7 
|
2.2x
|
| Large Growth Funds |
2.8 
|
4.2 
|
1.5x
|
| Source: Bernstein Research |
Each year, Morningstar also
names the mutual fund "Manager of the Year." Almost without
exception, the brilliance of these putative stars also dims with
time. Such managers have been identified each year since 1987, so
we can easily track their subsequent records. Average annual returns:
Funds run by Managers-of-the-Year, +12.4%; unmanaged Standard &
Poor’s 500 Index, +14.8%; annual top-manager shortfall, -2.4%. Three
of the managers no longer manage any mutual funds, and two others
no longer supervise the funds they managed when they were honored.
For the seven Managers-of-the-Year who have produced at least a
five-year subsequent record, the annual shortfall gap is an even
larger 3.1%—Manager, 14.3%; S&P 500, 17.4%. Each year, I wish
the newly identified star well. Alas, my good wishes don’t seem
to carry much weight with the gods of the marketplace.
|
Morningstar's Equity Fund
Managers of the Year
|
| |
All Winnners
|
1987-1995 Winners
|
| Annual Return |
+12.4%
|
+14.3%
|
| S&P 500 |
+14.8%
|
+17.4%
|
| Manager Shortfall |
-2.4%
|
-3.1%
|
Admittedly, the Morningstar
star ratings and manager crownings have a fairly short-term history.
So I now turn to a longer-term view of the mutual fund industry,
examining the results of all broadly-diversified equity funds
over the past four decades. (Since I’ve used the large-cap, broadly
diversified S&P 500 Index as my measurement standard, my exclusion
of small-cap funds and aggressive growth funds provides the fairest
possible comparison.) When we examine the extent to which each decade’s
top-quartile funds emulate their standings in the subsequent decade,
what do we see? A massive pattern of reversion to the mean.
Reversion
to the Mean
In each decade, the top-quartile funds
tumbled sharply—and rather consistently—in terms of their excess
returns over the S&P 500 Index: A decline of 5.0 percentage
points per year from the 1960s to the 1970s; 5.8 points from the
1970s to the 1980s; 4.5 points from the 1980s to the 1990s. By the
same token, the bottom-quartile funds improved each decade,
in each case by about two percentage points of annual return. For
example, the top-quartile funds in the 1980s beat the Index by 2.8%
per year, only to lose by 1.7% per year during the 1990’s. During
the same periods, the bottom quartile funds rose from 4.5% behind
the Index to a lag of 3.1% annually.2 One reason
the top quartile funds fall back to only slightly behind
the market, while the rise of the bottom quartile funds usually
fails even to return them to the market’s return, is that top-quartile
funds have below-average operating expenses and bottom-quartile
funds have above-average operating expenses. While gross
performance reverts to the mean, fund expense ratios do not. So
funds with lower expenses garner the advantage in net performance.)
Clearly, RTM rules the mutual fund seas.

Despite this powerful, self-evident pattern
of mean reversion, the mutual fund industry both revels in it and
panders to it. Why? Because past performance attracts investor attention,
and investor assets. The industry aggressively promotes past fund
returns—but only when they have been are extraordinary. The
net result is that money pours into a high-performing (i.e. hot)
fund only after the performance is achieved. To make matters
worse, when the seemingly inevitable reversion to the mean (and
usually well below it) takes place, investors’ illusions are shattered,
and the money flow first dries up and then turns negative, as investors
depart the sinking ships.
Reversion in Cash Flows,
Too
Let me use this selected example of small,
struggling fund with 1990 assets of $12 million to illustrate how
the system works. The fund’s so-called "momentum" strategy—buying
stocks of companies demonstrating (or projecting) extraordinary
earnings growth, selling them when their earnings growth slows—produced
average annual returns in the +40% range during 1991-1995. Some
$4.5 billion of investor capital poured in, and assets soared to
$6 billion in 1996. Then the momentum strategy turned negative,
the fund’s returns turned tail (+2% per year in 1996-98) and net
share liquidations totaled $3.5 billion in 1997-1999. Then, the
momentum style—manifested most obviously in technology stocks—returned
to favor. In 1999 and the first quarter of 2000, the fund provided
a +139% return, and $1.4 billion poured in. The merry-go-round momentum
ceased as the quarter ended, the fund dropped by 40% in value, and
the inevitable cash outflow began in October.

There is a disturbing aspect to this cycle
of investor assets that follow performance like, as it were, a dog
on a leash. While the fund itself, often due to its success when
its assets were small, has achieved a marvelous lifetime return
on a time-weighted basis, the return it earns for its investors
(the dollar-weighted return) often leaves much to be desired.
Specifically, the standard time-weighted record published
by the fund presents a decade-long compound return of +27.1% per
year. The dollar-weighted return during that period, however,
was about +5.5% per year. (Of course, it is the time-weighted
record that is reported.) Put another way, while the fund appears
to have made big money, its investors would have been better
off with a simple bank deposit.
If this pattern—cash in at the high, cash out
at the low—is prevalent, the reported record of mutual fund performance
is vastly overstated. And it is prevalent. Month after month,
money pours into hot funds run by the stars of the day, and out
of the laggards. During 1998-2000, this pattern was more obvious
than ever. This era was one in which technology-oriented growth
funds were in the driver’s seat during the first two-and-one-quarter
years and in the doghouse during the final three quarters. Each
$1.00 invested at the outset of 1998 in the 28 growth funds run
by three of the most aggressive fund managers soared to a value
of $3.36 by March 2000.
During this period, cash inflow, less than $0.5
billion in the initial quarter of 1998, soared to $30 billion in
the first quarter of 2000. Then, as technology stocks tumbled, the
average value of the funds dropped by almost 30%, reducing that
$3.36 value at the high to $2.32. And in the fourth quarter of 2000,
a net outflow of $4 billion left the funds, a $34 billion reversal
of fortune. All told, investors put $3 billion into these funds
in the year before the good times started to roll, but poured in
$20 billion as their values soared, adding $46 billion more as performance
reached the stratosphere through the first quarter of 2000. It is
not a story with a happy ending.
Learning in the Mutual Fund
Laboratory
It is difficult, if not impossible, to accurately
measure cash flows in the financial markets. In the stock market
as a whole, for example, cash flows (excluding initial public offerings)
must offset one another. Money cannot flow into or out of
technology stocks, for each purchase of a technology share
by one investor must represent a sale by another. (This might seem
obvious, but how often do we read, "Investors fled tech stocks
today, pouring their money in Old Economy stocks?" Now how
can that be?) But in the mutual fund industry, not only can
cash flows exist from one style to another, they can be accurately
measured. So it is easy to observe money pouring into growth
funds and out of value funds, or vice versa. And pour in
and out it does!
Indeed, it is an easy matter to counterpoint
the performance and cash flows of the aggressive growth funds
that I’ve just chronicled with the performance and cash flows of
a comparable group of value funds. And, hardly surprisingly,
the numbers are turned upside down—a virtual mirror image. While
value of $1.00 invested in the growth funds at the outset of 1998
had grown to $3.36 by the first quarter of 2000, $1.00 in the value
funds had grown to a paltry $1.20. Investors were not amused by
this sharp differential, and cash flow into these value funds, $7
billion in the first quarter of 1998, gradually turned negative,
with outflows cascading to nearly $40 billion in the final quarter
of 1999 and the first quarter of 2000—almost precisely equal to
the inflow into our aggressive technology-laden fund group.
Just as there is RTM in fund performance, so there is RTM in
fund cash flows.
The Rowboat Syndrome
There could hardly be a more powerful—or more
discouraging—example of the counterproductive behavior of investors.
Following, as you might expect, the renowned "rowboat syndrome"—looking
at where you have been rather than where you are going—investors
moved away from value funds as their relative returns sagged, and
into growth funds as their returns surged. In the long run, these
investors may well be rewarded by the extra risks they had assumed.
Who, really, can say that they won’t be? But those who have withdrawn
their investments surely will not be rewarded. The reversion
of returns to the market mean in the past ten months has broken
the earlier pattern, and the net cash flow into aggressive growth
and technology funds first dried up and then turned to net liquidations
as the year 2000 ended.
An interesting sidelight: The total assets of
the aggressive growth funds began the period at $55 billion, peaked
in the spring of 2000 at $228 billion, and closed the year at $163
billion. The assets of the value funds began at $230 billion, peaked
at $303 billion, and closed at $250 billion. For all the reported
cumulative +235% return achieved by the growth funds at the
March 2000 high—and even through December an annualized return of
32%—the investors in those funds earned an annual return
of some 10%. The value funds, on the other hand, earned a reported
10% annual return for the full period. But their investors
earned almost the same return—indistinguishable from the return
earned by the growth investors. If there is a moral to this story—and
I think there is—it is this: "Stay the course."
|
Comparison of Growth and
Value Funds
|
| |
Growth Funds
|
Value Funds
|
|
Cumulative Ret.
12/98-3/00
|
+235.9%
|
+20.5%
|
Cumulative Ret.
3/00-12/00 |
-30.9%
|
+10.7%
|
Fund Ann. Ret.
12/98-12/00 |
+32.4%
|
+10.1%
|
Investor Ann. Ret.
12/98-12/00 |
+10.9%
|
+10.5%
|
It would be nice if those of
us in the investment community could blame these counterproductive
cash flows on dumb investors, pulled into the market by their emotions,
unwisely sharing extraordinary popular delusions and lured by the
madness of crowds. But we ourselves must take much of the blame.
The investment management, brokerage, and financial advisory industries
all have a lot to answer for. In particular, mutual fund
firms not only promote our most aggressive funds when the market
favors them, poor as that investment judgment may prove to be, and
brilliant as that marketing judgment has already proven to be. We
splash soaring performance numbers all over the pages of newspapers
and magazines, and on television screens from coast to coast. Our
silent partners, the media, add to this cacophony of hype by lionizing
"the winners" of the past year or even past quarter, and
the "best funds" for the coming year.
In Tune With
The Times
Any doubt that the mutual fund industry was
in tune with the speculative times of the late 1990s would surely
be put to rest by examining the new funds offered to the public.
During the past five years, 888 new equity-oriented domestic funds
were created by fund sponsors, of which only 172 were value funds.
678 were growth funds (including 93 high-powered "aggressive
growth" funds and 133 pure technology funds). Only 38 were
balanced funds.
Let’s examine just three of the trends in new
fund formation:
- Given the market environment, most of the
452 general growth funds heavily emphasized technology. The same
momentum of the marketplace that lured the general investing public
into speculation in the most over-heated areas of the market also
lured the money managers, driven by the urge to profit from it
by gathering more assets, in the same direction. Even some of
the most traditionally-conservative fund groups leaped, however
reluctantly, on the growth bandwagon. The marketing strategy worked
and the money rolled in. Yes, "it’s an ill wind that blows
no good."
- During 1996-98, only about eight pure technology
funds were formed each year. Then the explosion: 29 in 1999 and
79 in 2000 (most before the March high). We’ve all been
told that, amidst the revolution in information technology, this
is a New Era for investing, disregarding the fact that the worth
of an enterprise is the discounted value of its future cash flows.
(Yes, it is!). But when investors discount not only the
future, but the hereafter, trouble is near at hand. Staggering
values were placed on Internet companies, "first movers,"
and B2B providers. Nonetheless, the fund industry enthusiastically
jumped on the high-tech bandwagon. Seldom has this timeless principle
been more definitively proven: "The time to sell funds is
not the time to buy them."
- Another new fad—"Focus" funds—also
reached fruition. There were 22 funds following this strategy
five years ago; since then, 75 more have been formed. These portfolios
are normally concentrated in 20 or fewer stocks, with a consequent
reduction in diversification and elevation of risk. It sounds
logical enough that your favorite manager’s favorite 20 choices
will provide higher returns than his next 80 stocks, but I’m apprehensive
about what the future may hold.

ETFs
If the heat of technology in the marketplace opened
the door for tech-oriented funds, so its soaring turnover opened the
door for Exchanged-Traded Funds (ETFs)—index funds that investors
can trade in "real time." Only one ETF—the original "Spider,"
tracking the S&P 500 Index—existed five years ago. That fund (and
six similar ETFs formed thereafter) provided very broad diversification
in the total stock market, and had the potential to actually enhance
the value of index mutual funds, designed to be held
for the long-term. The remaining 90 ETFs, however, are clearly designed
for traders intent on speculation—the "Qubes" that track
the NASDAQ are now held on average for just seven(!) days. While the
seven Internet ETFs, 11 technology and telecom ETFs, and 22 ETFs indexed
to single foreign countries are held for somewhat longer periods,
they are nonetheless primarily used by traders. Indeed, such ETFs
are so narrowly-focused that it is unimaginable they would be used
by long-term investors. What is more, they are promoted as a means
for investors to trade the markets all the day long. (I recently saw
a television advertisement for the MSCI Korean Index iShares. It shows
a woman in a store as she notices chocolates, teacups, and hats, all
made in Korea. The message: "Spotted a Trend? Buy it." That
hardly suggests a lifetime holding.)

We can’t be certain, of course, the extent
to which the fund industry was responding to, or vigorously fomenting,
the growth mania that enveloped the market during the late 1990s,
a mania that was to persist through the first quarter of 2000. But
fund sponsors surely tried to foment these trends. The industry’s
advertising budgets soared. And it was not only the aggressive marketers—often
spending more than $100 million per year on media advertising alone.
Again, however reluctantly, even some heretofore parsimonious fund
groups took the zippers off their wallets and began to spend scores
of millions of dollars. (You’ve doubtless seen their ads in print
or on television.) One large fund manager even paid $120 million(!)
for the privilege of having its name placed on a new National Football
League stadium. It is not far-fetched, I think, to estimate that
in 1999-2000, fund managers collectively spent well over $1 billion
on media advertising. Or, more accurately, that fund shareholders
had $1 billion of their money spent on advertising. "Other
People’s Money," writ large!
And what were the fund sponsors advertising?
Performance! While I haven’t made an exhaustive analysis,
I did examine the March 2000 edition of Money magazine. There
were advertisements for 49 mutual funds, 44 of which advertised
their performance. And what performance! If the Money reader
naively believed that the funds whose advertisements he observed
provided returns that were representative of the industry, he would
have believed that the average fund had earned a twelve-month return
of +85.6%. (In fact, the average fund had earned just 27%). An even
dozen funds advertised one-year returns of more than +100%, with
the winner, as it were (an Internet fund), posting a return, precise
to a fault, of +216.44%. Doubtless these ads provided more capital
for the stars to invest—more fuel for the fire. But the so-called
stars were really comets. They promptly began to burn out, and the
+85% average return for those 44 funds morphed into a –24% return
over the next ten months.
Perfect Timing . . . In a
Sense
Last year, two funds were formed that will
go down in history as the paradigms of the paradox that the time
to sell is not the time to buy them. Early in 2000, a giant brokerage
firm formed a pair of funds clearly designed to capitalize on the
madness of the crowds. One was a Focus Twenty Fund, run by
a newly-acquired star manager fresh from having produced a +40%
annualized return (truth told, over only 19 months) for a comparable
fund. The new fund sought capital appreciation by investing in "rapidly
growing companies that possess certain growth strategies,"
and ranked each company "by factors such as positive earnings
surprises and upward earnings estimate revisions." The other
new fund was an Internet Strategies Fund, investing in a
star concept; owning "stocks of companies that will
use the Internet as a component of their business strategies."
(The two italicized phrases suggest the vagueness of the funds’
investment strategies.)
Boiler-plate language describes the risks associated
with the funds: Limited diversification, the Internet industry,
companies having limited product lines and a smaller number of key
personnel, etc. Still, the prospectus assured us that the funds,
"may be an appropriate investment for you if you are investing
with long term goals such as retirement or funding a child’s education."
(A notorious conservative, I’m not so sure about the appropriateness
of such risky strategies for such serious goals. For my grandchildren,
I invest in Vanguard’s Tax-Managed Balanced Fund—50% intermediate-term
municipal bond funds, 50% all-stock market index fund.)
The two new funds were offered
at an initial net asset value of $10.00 per share, plus a 5.5% base
sales charge, paid in a lump sum at the outset or spread over five
years, with a commensurate fee if shares are redeemed. Their annual
operating expense ratios, depending on which class of shares was
owned, was projected to run from 1.25% to a hefty 2.25%. But the
drag of those sales charges and costs didn’t seem to matter in the
exuberant market environment of early 2000. The firm’s brokers had
something timely to sell, and sell them they did. Droves of clients
flocked into the funds, investing $2 billion of their capital in
the new funds—$1.1 billion in the Internet Strategies Fund and $0.9
billion in the Focus Twenty Fund. The underwriting took place on
March 14, 2000, four days after the NASDAQ hit its all time high
of 5,048. The timing was, in a sense, perfect.3
Apres moi, le deluge! No sooner was the
offering sold than the market plunge began. Both funds suffered
through the spring, stabilized in the summer, tumbled in the fall
and reached bottom (so far) as winter began. Investors who paid
$10.55 per share saw their shares of the Focus Twenty Fund recently
valued at $4.88, a long way from the 40% annualized gain that the
prospectus had linked to manager’s previously recorded. Shares of
the Internet Strategies Fund did even worse, valued at $3.43. All
told, of the funds’ $2 billion of initial capital as the market
tumbled and the Internet bubble burst, $1.25 billion had vanished
into thin air.
The timing and fate of these two supercharged
growth funds shows how counterproductive it is to invest on the
basis of the popular styles of the moment. The same thing is true
of investing on the basis of past performance. It is not only a
loser’s game, but a loser’s game in which the losses can be large.
Yes, the investor is often his own worst enemy. Yes, the marketing
colossus known as the mutual fund industry provides the weaponry
which enables investors’ to indulge their suicidal instincts. No,
the fund industry was hardly an innocent bystander in the market
boom and the subsequent carnage. "We have met the enemy and
he is us". . . all of us.
Growth vs. Value
It’s not just the recent era in which the tug-of-war
between growth and value has materialized. It’s been part of the
investment landscape ever since investment managers decided to sort
their styles into those two categories. The distinction, as far
as I can tell, goes back to the mid-1930s, when some of the sponsors
of the traditional dividend-income-oriented equity mutual funds
decided they needed growth funds in their "product line."
My favorite example: The trustees of Massachusetts Investors Trust,
the nation’s first and then largest mutual fund created a second
fund and named it, of all things, Massachusetts Investors Second
Fund. (This imaginative[?] choice clearly preceded the age of marketing
that was later to envelop the industry.) In 1960, its name was changed
to Massachusetts Investors Growth Stock Fund.
As awkward, imprecise, and inherently misleading
as those monikers—growth and value—are, the distinction between
stocks with high growth rates, high price-earnings ratios and high
price-to-book-value ratios and stocks with low growth rates
and low p-e and price-book ratios is a credible distinction. Growth
portfolios should provide—and have provided—a greater portion of
their total investment return in the form of capital appreciation,
a greater volatility, and, at least theoretically, a lower portfolio
turnover. Value portfolios on the other hand, should provide—and
have provided—a greater portion of return through dividend income,
a lower volatility, and a higher portfolio turnover. There are important
tax considerations involved in this distinction, since growth portfolios
should command an after-tax advantage of 1% to 2% in annual return—a
staggering long-term advantage for investors in high tax brackets.
The question, of course, is whether it is growth
or value which provides the higher pre-tax returns. Again, the mutual
fund laboratory is a wonderful place to test the issue. Years ago,
I analyzed the records of growth funds and value funds going back
to 1937, long before the inception of the S&P/Barra Growth and
Value Indexes, which date back to 1975. Linking my data with the
data for these two indexes during the entire 63-year period, it
is clear that the relative returns of the two investing styles move
back and forth. For a prolonged period at the outset (1937-1948),
their results were similar: Both styles earned returns of about
8.5%. Then Growth was in the driver’s seat for fully 20 years, turning
in a +16.4% return in 1948-1968, vs. +13.9% for Value. Next, Value
was ascendant for two-plus decades, earning +10.9% annually vs.
+7.9% for Growth through 1989. Then, Growth took over—with a fury!—for
the next eleven years. Through 1999, it was Growth +21.0%, Value
+7.1%. That annual margin couldn’t persist forever, of course, and
in 2000—the greatest (if longest-awaited) comeuppance for Growth
during the long period I’ve evaluated—Value gained +8.0%; Growth
lost –22.4%—a 30.4% difference in return.

Reversion to the Mean
Clearly Sir Isaac Newton’s revenge on Wall Street
is at work here! Reversion to the mean. Again! What goes
up (above the market mean) must go down (below the market mean).
This law of gravity—which affects all broad classes of stocks (large
vs. small, U.S. vs. international, etc.)—is the classic manifestation
of the eternal dynamics of the stock market’s extraordinary ability
to arbitrage present reality against future expectations. RTM may
take place slowly or quickly; it may take place in spasms or over
cycles; but take place it does. And it can correct long-standing
imbalances in a trice. For example, the reversion to the mean that
took place last year—up with Value, down with Growth—brought these
two market segments almost to equivalence since 1989, the second
year of the 11-year ascendancy for growth stocks. The record for
that period now shows annual returns of +16.6% for Growth, and +15.4%
for Value.
In the very long run, the cycles have ironed
themselves out and, at least in my view, there is no reason to expect
either style to outpace the other over time (despite the important
tax advantage for the growth investor). And the 1937-2000 record
is witness to the profound pervasiveness of RTM. Despite all the
cycles, the record for the past 63 years shows these annual rates
of return: Growth, +11.8%; Value, +11.9%. Now to be sure, some brilliant
academics disagree with my conclusion. In their seminal 1992 paper,
Professors Fama and French showed that low p/e, low market-to-book
stocks had provided higher returns than high p/e, high market-to-book
stocks. But I would observe that their study, which covered the
period 1963-1990, shares a common limitation with every other study
of investment returns that has ever been undertaken. It was
period dependent. And it happens to have coincided quite neatly
with the era of Value investing that took place from 1968 through
1989. Yet for ten long years following their study, it was Growth
that, by a wide margin, sat in the drivers’ seat.

I’m a firm believer that RTM is a pervasive
investment principle. So place me in the camp of those who believe
that neither strategy—Growth or Value—has an inherent long-term
edge. Neither strategy, then, has the durability of a star. Both
are comets—comets with long tails, but comets nonetheless. Yet as
we observe these extended cycles of mean reversion, it must occur
to you that investors ought to be able to capitalize on them, riding
one horse until it tires, then leaping to the other. Sad to say,
too many mutual funds and mutual fund investors are doing the exact
reverse of that strategy, waiting nervously as the cycle
develops, finally succumbing to temptation and jumping aboard as
it approaches its peak, only to suffer the consequences when the
seemingly inevitable RTM takes place. And doing the reverse takes
more courage and foresight than most of us have. Speaking for myself,
I have the ability to forecast neither how much of this recent reversion
to the mean in favor of Value remains, nor when it will end. If
you are smart enough to know, please be my guest and act accordingly.
Good luck!
If You Can’t Foretell, Diversify
So here is my simple conclusion: If you
can’t foretell the future, diversify. Stop taking your
chances with comets that are all too often disguised as stars. Go
right to the center of the universe and own the sun. If you can’t
consistently switch back and forth from growth to value (or large-cap
to small-cap) at or near the half-dozen or so inflection points
that will occur during an investment lifetime, just own the entire
U.S. stock market. Own the stocks of every public corporation in
America, weighted by their market capitalizations, and hold them
forever . . . Warren Buffett’s favorite holding period. I firmly
believe that such a strategy—when administered with effectiveness
through a low-cost, highly tax effective all-market index fund—is
the ultimate winning strategy for the long-term.
One wonderful aspect of this all-market strategy
is that it eliminates three of the four great risks of investing:
(1) the risk of individual stock selection; (2) the risk of picking
the wrong investment style, or even the right style (if there is
one) at the wrong time; and (3) the risk of selecting the wrong
manager to implement whatever style you choose. (The diffusion of
returns among managers in a given style is huge: The top
decile of all large cap growth managers that survived the past decade
earned an annual return of +23%; the bottom decile just +11%.) Of
course, one great risk remains: stock market risk. And in the New
Investment Environment we face today, the risk of a further serious
decline in the stock market is anything but trivial. Nonetheless,
both the history of our financial markets and the future growth
and productivity of American business suggest that owning the U.S.
stock market for a lifetime should pose extremely limited risk for
those who have the courage to stay the course. There are, indeed,
few better alternatives to long-run capital appreciation.

Whatever the market’s future return, we can be
certain that, because of the heavy costs of financial intermediaries,
few investors—and few mutual funds—will capture 100% of it. I remain
convinced—this may not surprise you—that the market index mutual fund
is the best way to emulate the 100% goal. Consider this representative
example, comparing the returns of large-cap mutual funds with the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index during the past 15 years. (To be more
than fair to the funds, I’ve included only those funds that actually
survived the period. More than half of all funds in business
during that period no longer exist.) These large-cap funds turned
in a pre-tax return of +13.98% per year vs. +15.80% for a low-cost
index fund pegged to the S&P 500 Index. After-tax returns: Funds
+11.13%, index fund +14.44%.
The
simple index fund outpaced nearly 80% of its managed fund peers
on a pre-tax basis, and more than 90% of them on an after-tax basis.
Cumulatively, $10,000 in the average large cap fund grew to $48,700;
$10,000 in the S&P 500 index fund grew to $75,600. That’s what
happens when we compound those few percentage points of extra annual
return over just 15 years. I’ll spare you exactly what the difference
would amount to over an investment lifetime, but if you are guessing
you’d have $4.00 in the index fund for each $1.00 in the managed
fund, you’d be in the right ballpark.

Is such a gap likely to persist? Unequivocally,
yes. Why? Because the gap is largely engendered by the high management
fees, operating costs, and portfolio turnover costs that mutual
fund managers incur on behalf of their shareholders. (If fund managers
slash their costs and start investing for the long term, that would
be another story.) Yes, once investors recognize the difficulty
of deciding whether they’re seeing a star or a comet, they’ll have
no trouble recognizing the sun—"that lucky old sun (that) has
nothing to do but roll around heaven all day."
That Lucky Old Sun
The fact is that simply following the sun—owning
the stock market, receiving whatever rewards it bestows and assuming
whatever risks it entails—has proven to be the optimal investment
strategy. Because of the frictional costs of investing, the sun
is certain to outpace the returns of all of those comets
and stars put together—all investors as a group, all managers as
a group, all investment styles as a group. Yes, there have been
some star investors, but they are precious few, and I take my hat
off to them. But no, there is no way to be certain how long today’s
stars will remain in that celestial realm. Nor have I ever seen
any methodology by which tomorrow’s stars can be identified in advance.
But beyond serious refutation is the evidence that the overwhelming
majority of yesterday’s stars are destined to be tomorrow’s comets.
You may recall that after his travels, Ecclesiastes,
"returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to
the swift nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the
wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding . . . but time and
chance happeneth to them all." In that ancient wisdom from
the tenth century B.C., investors today will find not only consolation,
but reaffirmation that the sun remains at the center of the investment
universe. By following it, we can in fact win the race without being
swift, the battle without being strong, the bread without being
wise, the riches without understanding. But investors do need enough
wisdom to understand the lesson! Once we have absorbed it—often,
alas, only after hard experience—and then acted on it, we need only
time to help us build our wealth. While the inevitable chance that
exists in the financial markets will periodically challenge our
resolve, we can at least be confident of earning our fair share
of whatever long-term returns the market may provide.
1. In fairness, the
cost of moving from one fund to another as the Stars shift around
each month, often incurring an extra sales charge each time, had
a negative impact on the Morningstar data. Nonetheless, there is
little evidence to suggest that investors should navigate by the
Morning-Stars. Return
2. More than incidentally, I should say
that these measurements include only funds that actually survive
the subsequent decade, so they provide a generous appraisal of industry
performance. Return
3. In a wonderfully appropriate move, the
firm relied on a "virtual road show" on the Internet for the Internet
Strategies Fund IPO. One of its executives bragged, "we wanted to
do this quickly . . . the Internet fund was a hot property and catching
a lot of flows in the industry." The fund industry has moved a very
long way from stewardship. Return
Note: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views of Vanguard's present management.
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